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Drone maker AeroVironment posted higher earnings for its latest quarter, in part due to a $1.1 million tax benefit, though its revenue declined amid sagging sales in its efficient energy systems division.
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Oil prices sold off sharply Tuesday, giving back a chunk of their prior-day surge, as fresh signals of oversupply and weak demand buffeted the market and analysts cautioned about the sustainability of the recent rally.
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U.S. stocks fell Tuesday following five straight sessions of gains, their longest winning streak since October.
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is having little trouble issuing its largest bond deal on record, reflecting the continued appetite for debt from highly-rated companies.
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A new market-volatility gauge is aiming to be less volatile than its main rival. Exchange operator Bats Global Markets and indexing firm T3 Index on Tuesday launched a volatility index that will compete with the market’s main “fear gauge,” the CBOE Volatility Index. While these indexes aren’t traded, investors refer to the CBOE Volatility Index, […]
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The Senate Banking Committee is set to hold a confirmation hearing on March 15 for the Obama administration’s two nominees for the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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Cargill Inc. plans to scale back antibiotics use in its U.S. cattle supply, one of the most significant steps yet among beef processors to reduce reliance on drugs used to treat human illnesses.
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Gold prices fell Tuesday, as negative Chinese exports data pushed some investors to lock in gains on commodities after a lengthy rally.
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Citigroup likely saw fixed income and equities trading revenue fall by 15% in the first quarter, a worrying sign for U.S. banks overall.
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Plunging government bond yields in Japan on Tuesday rippled globally, pushing down yields in the U.S., Germany and the U.K.
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Bulls may have imagined that the market was truly turning around, but those daydreams are running into unlucky reality.
If the February rebound gets a theme song, it may well be “Just My Imagination.”
Bulls may have imagined that the market was truly turning around, but those daydreams are running into reality. After trading above 2000, the S&P is falling back from that key psychological level, currently down 21 points at 1981.The Dow was above 17000 this afternoon, but currently is down 103 points at 16970; this morning, it traded down as many as 152 points.
The last month has been good to the bulls. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 9% since hitting bottom on Feb. 11; the S&P 500 is up 9.4%; and Nymex crude is up 45%. Iron ore rose 19% yesterday alone. Those are big moves. The problem is that what the bulls have already gotten may be all they get.
“After a nice three weeks that began with an escape from the abyss and transitioned into frantic short covering and savvy value driven discount shopping, stocks are now at a tricky level,” said MND Partners managing director Timothy Anderson. “In typical Wall Street fashion this could quickly become a case of ‘what have you done for me lately?’ “
The entire range from 1994 to 2023 on the S&P 500 is a minefield of resistance points for the bulls, in fact, according to John Kosar at Asbury Research. “This is where the market must decide whether the current rise from underlying support at SPX 1821 is the start of a sustainable new intermediate term advance, or just a countertrend rally within an uncompleted intermediate term decline.” Mr. Kosar expects lower U.S. interest rates, a continued move into the Japanese yen, and a decline in Chinese, European and Japanese markets. All that, he said, means “a deeper decline is coming in the U.S. market later this year.”
While many are eyeballing the 200-day moving average for the S&P 500, which currently sits around 2022, the fact that it has been moving down illustrates the index’s loss of longer-term momentum. What’s been seen in the market the past few weeks has been swift and impressive, BTIG market technician Katie Stockton wrote, but that’s how bear-market rallies tend to look. “We think this is reason to view the relief rally as a counter-trend move,” she said, “and eventually a selling opportunity (when short-term momentum sees a downtick).
The big number to keep an eye on in the short term is 1970 on the S&P 500, a level that a few technicians are watching because it marks the uptrend line from the February lows. One is Longford Associates Joan McCullough. “They seem to have confirmed what we observed from Friday’s march,” she wrote in a morning note, “when they got up near the higher levels, it looks like they drew sellers. Yesterday, they further confirmed that momentum looks to be weakening.”
Mark Newton, a registered chart technician previously with Greywolf Execution Partners and now running his eponymous Newton Advisors, said the rally could expect a “real washout” if that 1970 level is taken out. Until then, he said, the market is “just churning.”
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Natural gas futures slipped as the market came to terms with the apparent early end to a tepid winter heating season.
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The European Central Bank is widely expected to announce a substantial package of stimulus measures on Thursday, combining rate cuts, additional asset purchases and possibly more.
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Stocks, junk bonds and commodities have rallied of late. But so have safe havens like gold and the yen—a sign uncertainty still reigns.
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Square’s shares have popped more than 40% from last month’s low. But investors shouldn’t expect too much from Wednesday’s quarterly results.
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When Honeywell, shortly after issuing bonds in Europe, announced it was pursuing a merger that would add greatly to its debt, European investors weren’t happy and may become more wary of U.S. euro-denominated debt.
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Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco, plans to nearly double its gas production to 23 billion standard cubic feet a day in 10 years, Chief Executive Amin Nasser said Tuesday.
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The U.S. Office of Financial Research said the ripple effects from a large bank default could be nine times larger across the banking sector than what is contemplated under existing stress tests of individual firms.
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A U-turn in nearly all major asset classes this year is restoring faith in the global economic outlook. That hasn’t been the case in one corner of the Treasury market.
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Spanish construction companies remain expensive purchases when their stock price is measured against earnings. Investors seem to have faith in their long-term health because they are seen as being central to Spain’s economic and political ecosystem.
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The U.S. Energy Department lowered its price expectations for the global Brent crude contract this year and next, saying it expected supplies to grow more than previously anticipated.
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Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney said the possible departure of the U.K. from the European Union represents the biggest domestic risk to the country’s financial stability.
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Strip malls and shopping centers, often seen as suburban eyesores, are boosting profits at their landlords.
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Investors are gradually coming to terms with the fact that the growing global pie of negative-yielding sovereign debt is upending the playbook in the $13.2 trillion U.S. government bond market.
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Real-estate investors are betting London is on track to deliver a rare feat: the lasting revitalization of neighborhoods around an Olympic park, years after the games ended.
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New signs of weakness are surfacing in the U.S. commercial-property market, ending a half-decade run of improvement with steadily climbing values.
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A Morgan Stanley broker who manages more than $550 million has ditched his wirehouse roots to join an independent wealth-management firm affiliated with Raymond James Financial Services Inc.
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The mystery investor building a stake in U.K. fashion retailer Burberry seems to be betting on either a Chinese rebound or a new bout of cost-cutting.
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Shake Shack shares are getting grilled. The fast-casual burger chain’s stock is down as much as 11% Tuesday to $37.50, its worst intraday drop in a month, after the company issued disappointing full-year guidance and said it expects labor costs to rise.
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Shorts seem to be heading for the exits at Urban Outfitters Inc. as the teen-apparel retailer’s shares have rebounded from a test of multiyear lows.
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The International Monetary Fund is pushing many of the world’s largest economies to boost spending amid weakening growth prospects. But not at the expense of monetary policy.
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The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond hit a new low in negative territory and longer-term bond yields also fell to record lows.
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Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the recent rebound in commodity prices is unsustainable and premature.
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U.S. stock indexes broke through some key technical levels last week, notably their medium-term 50-day moving averages.
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Performance Sports Group Ltd. slashed its earnings forecast on Tuesday, citing weakness in the baseball and softball equipment markets, the bankruptcy of a customer and extra bad debt reserves for U.S. hockey customers.
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The global economy is set to slow over coming months, with growth weakening in most developed economies even as it stabilizes in China, according to leading indicators released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
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Clues are piling up that indicate Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd.’s hostile pursuit of a merger with Norfolk Southern Corp. may be running out of track.
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The eurozone still has a problem with high debt levels, even as others like the U.K. and U.S. reduce their burdens. Inflation by almost any means is needed and soon.
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Welcome to Evening MoneyBeat, WSJ’s closing-bell roundup of all the news and developments in the capital markets. To receive this newsletter, click here: http://on.wsj.com/MoneyBeatEveningSignup HOW WE GOT HERE U.S. stocks were modestly higher on Monday, in a session that saw the major indexes bouncing around between red and green. After spending the first six weeks or […]
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Demand from foreign buyers is weakening, the National Association of Realtors said Monday, undermined by a strong U.S. dollar and rising home prices.
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While foreign banks, from Canada to Japan, are extending their lending outside of domestic markets, European lenders have been scaling back, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements.
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The demise of the high-end London housing boom pushed down profits last year for U.K. real-estate agent Foxtons Group PLC, one of the biggest property brokers in the capital.
U.S. housing has become a tale of two markets, with lower-priced homes selling quickly even as inventory of expensive ones piles up.
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A Vale-Fortescue alliance spells plenty of iron-ore supply into future. The material’s price rally may end up like a lead balloon.
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SoftBank has long traded below the sum of its parts, but a clean split into stable cash cow and high-growth portfolio would help narrow the discount.
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The Goldman Sachs partner who handled deals for a controversial Malaysian government investment fund was suspended and later quit after bank investigators found he allegedly violated company policies.
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China shares fell Tuesday amid worries the government might try to cool speculative activity in the country’s top property markets.
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Good morning from London, Welcome to this new newsletter from WSJ City, the Wall Street Journal’s new mobile-native news app for London’s business and finance readers. WSJ City brings together world-class, award winning journalism from The Wall Street Journal, Financial News, Heard on the Street, MoneyBeat and MarketWatch, plus exclusive news from WSJ City’s team of London-based […]
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Days after central banks initiated a stress test of two trade-plumbing firms in Europe, LCH.Clearnet Group Ltd. said Germany’s Maple Bank GmbH had defaulted on its financial obligations at the clearinghouse operator.
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The Goldman Sachs partner who handled deals for a controversial Malaysian government investment fund was suspended and later quit after bank investigators found he allegedly violated firm policies.
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The price of iron ore jumped by almost 20% as investors bet China will stimulate its economy and buoy demand for this key steelmaking ingredient.
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Central clearing shifts and reduces risk but doesn’t eliminate it, finds Ivana Ruffini of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s economic research department.
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Visium Asset Management, a $8 billion hedge-fund firm run by Jacob Gottlieb, is being investigated by the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission over trading and valuation issues.
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In House Speaker Paul Ryan’s office, the Labor Department’s proposed fiduciary rule has been dubbed “Obamacare for financial planning.”
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The riskiest part of the U.S. corporate-bond market is staging a comeback, marking an upswing in investor confidence following a turbulent start to the year.
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FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg waved warning flags on interest rate risk, the energy sector and cyberthreats on Monday at the Institute of International Bankers conference.
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Some retailers are requiring customers to buy the cards with cash or asking that they show identification, a consequence of new rules that put them on the hook for fraud.
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A test shows that stock and balanced mutual funds may have better returns when they don’t try to stay within the same “style box.”
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The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau signaled its increasing scrutiny of the growing online marketplace for loans, encouraging borrowers to submit complaints when they encounter problems with online lenders.
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U.S. financial policy makers are taking stock of the rule book written after the financial crisis and considering whether regulations designed to create safer markets have made them less functional. But it isn’t clear they are ready to erase any parts of the new regime just yet.
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The dollar slipped against the yen and euro Monday, after a Federal Reserve official called for a cautious approach to raising interest rates.
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Casey’s General Stores said its earnings fell 3.1% in the latest quarter as revenue missed analysts’ expectations and gasoline sales fell despite stronger volume.
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An administrative error at a popular BlackRock Inc. exchange-traded gold product led it to sell more shares than it had registered with regulators and could open it up to penalties, according to a filing.
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U.S. stocks crept higher Monday, struggling to extend a recent rally even as a surge in oil prices lifted energy shares.
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Natural-gas prices settled higher on expectations that a decline in drilling will lead to lower production.
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Brazilian markets are rallying as an investigation into widespread government corruption widens, fueling ideas that the country’s president Dilma Rousseff will be unseated and replaced with a more market-friendly government.
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The U.S. government bond market remained under selling pressure on Monday, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to a fresh one-month high.
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Gold prices edged down Monday after spending most of the day shuffling between gains and losses amid uncertainty ahead of rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
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Oil prices surged on hopes that declines in oil drilling around the world and an output deal among major producers would shrink the global glut of crude.
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On today’s MoneyBeat podcast, WSJ economics columnist Greg Ip joins us to talk about the still-present odds of a recession.
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President Barack Obama defended his administration’s record on financial regulation and said that shadow banking, cybersecurity, and executive-compensation rules would be top priorities during his remaining months in office.
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This week should provide the perfect opportunity for betting on a stronger dollar, but not so fast.
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A run-up in the price of iron ore this year crested with a 20% jump in prices Monday. But some analysts believe the rally can’t last unless demand in China picks up.
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A Federal Reserve economist says the effect of a pileup of regulatory changes on market liquidity is an ongoing concern, and while markets’ resiliency has been tested lately, a fuller vetting remains.
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For WSJ Pro Financial Regulation’s inaugural event on March 16, WSJ’s Jacob Schlesinger sits down with one of the more outspoken, and surprising, voices in this discussion, Thomas Hoenig, the vice chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
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The national bank regulator is looking at whether guidance is needed to address bankers’ fears of violating anti-money-laundering laws.
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How Dick’s Sporting Goods benefits from Sports Authority’s bankruptcy filing will help determine whether shares can bounce back from a difficult 12 months.
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ComScore’s announcement that it will delay its annual report and suspend its buyback program over an accounting issue may be related to a controversial revenue metric.
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Decisions in two federal courts may undermine an argument critical to Fannie and Freddie shareholder lawsuits.
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The U.S. Treasury is continuing to push for more policies to establish a level playing field between foreign and U.S. banks, said Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs Nathan Sheets.
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You’re going to hear a lot this week about the great post-crisis bull market, but be wary of the hyperbole.
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In “All the Single Ladies,” Rebecca Traister chronicles the latest surge in single women and the role they have played throughout U.S. history.
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The Federal Reserve actually has plenty of ammunition left. But it doesn’t work in its conventional weapons.
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A British judge has adjourned a case in which he was asked to decide who is the rightful leader of Libya’s $67 billion sovereign wealth fund, the Libyan Investment Authority.
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In the past seven years, activist investors have managed to outperform down markets, but have underperformed good ones.
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Investors in Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. are circling a new date on their calendars.
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The Egyptian government has replaced the head of a department that recently caused international controversy when it rejected a shipment of imported grain for containing a toxic fungus.
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Apple shares have been looking rosier in recent weeks. But another analyst is getting slightly less optimistic amid ongoing concerns about declining iPhone sales.
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Many investors headed for the exit in emerging markets in 2015. That creates an opportunity for 2016.
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The average bonus on Wall Street fell 9% to $146,200 in 2015, making it the lowest average in three years as profits continued to slip at securities firms, New York state Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli said Monday.
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America’s entrepreneurs are brimming with promising ideas. But they appear to be struggling to transform innovations and insights into successful companies with broad reach.
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The proposed $50 billion valuation placed on Alibaba’s financial affiliate Ant Financial would make it one of the top 10 financial firms in China, and could generate a huge windfall for shareholders
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Among the companies with shares expected to trade actively in Monday’s session are Pier 1 Imports Inc., Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., Del Taco Restaurants. and NCR Corp.
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The finance chief of Electricité de France has resigned, seemingly in protest over plans to build a new nuclear power plant in the U.K. The French company is in particularly tight bind.
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Deals of the Day is your one-stop-shop for the morning’s biggest news from the finance beat, including M&A, IPOs, banks, hedge funds and private equity.
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With the European Central Bank’s next meeting looming, analysts and investors have begun to take a much closer look at how negative-rate policies affect bank balance sheets and how that might vary across the eurozone’s different economies.
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One of the biggest questions facing the markets is whether the current rally has legs. Those betting that it does just got some support from improving market breadth.
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Investors are hanging a valuation of nearly $50 billion on Alibaba’s deal-hungry financial-services affiliate Ant Financial, the latest sign of appetite for the sector.
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The European Central Bank starts the week facing the tall order of swaying markets with a new round of stimulus Thursday, but so far the euro’s value against the U.S. dollar suggests investors are bracing themselves to be disappointed. In the last month, the euro has fallen by far less than it did ahead of previous widely expected policy meetings.
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An adviser has a suggestion for a man looking to benefit both his family and his religious home.
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Barclays PLC hired nine people including former Bank of America Merrill Lynch banker Carlo Calabria to strengthen its mergers and acquisitions business.
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Here’s your morning jolt of news, insight and analysis on the global energy business. Send us tips, suggestions and complaints: EnergyJournal@wsj.com Sign up for this newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/EnergyJournalSignup [wsj-responsive-image P=”http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MW623_SBMIDL_P_20160302135050.jpg” J=”http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MW623_SBMIDL_J_20160302135050.jpg” M=”http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MW623_SBMIDL_M_20160302135050.jpg” caption=”A pumpjack sits on the outskirts of Midland, Texas.” credit=”Getty Images” placement=”Inline” ] UAE ENERGY MINISTER SEES PRODUCERS FORCED TO FREEZE OUTPUT Global crude markets will see […]
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China got a breather on foreign exchange depletion in February. A lasting change in sentiment about the yuan, however, will be harder to engineer.
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Financial advisers should be talking to clients about the pending rule from the Labor Department that will toughen standards for retirement account advice, but many are experiencing a sort of paralysis, one practice management expert tells Wealth Adviser at WSJ.com. Advisers have “an opportunity today to frame the conversation with clients,” but in many cases those […]
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‘Corporate centers’, a vaguely defined area set up as a catch-all for shared costs, is becoming a dumping ground for losses related to everything from bad acquisitions to penalties for wayward business practices.
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Shares in Old Mutual soared as much as 11% amid speculation about a possible breakup of the banking and investment company after it said it was considering all options as part of a strategic review.
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Global crude markets will see a correction before the end of this year as current prices are forcing all producers to freeze their production, the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister said Monday.
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Chinese shares rallied Monday as investors focused on China’s plans to prop up the slowing economy, boosting stocks in such sectors as construction, technology and pharmaceuticals.
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Good morning from London, Welcome to this new newsletter from WSJ City, the Wall Street Journal’s new mobile-native news app for London’s business and finance readers. WSJ City brings together world-class, award winning journalism from The Wall Street Journal, Financial News, Heard on the Street, MoneyBeat and MarketWatch, plus exclusive news from WSJ City’s team of London-based […]
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The bull run that real-estate investment trusts have been on since the financial crisis makes them pricey.
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A possible U.S. export ban on components destined for Chinese tech giant ZTE shows how reliant China remains for foreign hardware.
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After long playing defense over her close ties to Wall Street, Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton tried to shift the terms of the argument at the Democratic debate, blasting her challenger for opposing financial-industry bailout funds that were also used to keep afloat the auto industry in 2009.
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The ECB is expected to push a key interest rate further into negative territory on Thursday, a move that is at once widely anticipated by markets and viewed with trepidation.
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Investing in Iran-tied mutual funds is still broadly prohibited for U.S. investors. But for Europeans, it can be done.
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It isn’t a giddy seventh anniversary of the bull market. U.S.-stock funds are down 6.4% for the year so far.
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Mark Hulbert on why bear markets are painful, but don’t last as many years as some investors might fear.
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Sustainable-investment firms have made inroads in retirement accounts but there is a long way to go.
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Financial Literacy Month is almost here. It’s about balancing checkbooks. And a bit of a marketing gimmick.
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Wall Street’s earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies are falling at the fastest pace since the height of the financial crisis.
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Accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers has named Robert E. Moritz as its new global chairman effective July 1. Mr. Moritz has been PwC’s U.S. chairman and senior partner since 2009.
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For Iqbal Khan, the man charged with running the international wealth-management business at Credit Suisse Group, the timing has been awful.
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As Shake Shack gets set to report fourth-quarter earnings, the stock’s valuation is too beefy to justify at these levels.
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China’s leaders signaled new rules to free up company listings will be introduced later than many investors were expecting, in the latest sign that ensuring stability has become Beijing’s policy priority.
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China’s lower growth target is still too high, and Beijing will do things it shouldn’t, especially pumping lending into the economy, to get there.
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Among the most surprising of Donald Trump’s supporters are two billionaire financiers who once teamed up against him in a legal battle. A real-estate investor also endorsed him.
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A credit boom is creating anxiety among executives and economists over heightened risks in China’s financial system and a wave of soured loans.
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When Urban Outfitters and Aéropostale report earnings, investors will be looking for signs of a recovery in the struggling teen-retail sector. Store chains catering to teens have been hard hit in the past few years by declining mall traffic and changing tastes that eschew logo-laden clothes.
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Working on your tax return? Put your records in order now to cope with a challenge from the Internal Revenue Service down the road.
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Stocks shake off recession fears; oil and emerging markets rebound; clouds gather over startup valuations.
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BlackRock said it suspended the issuance of new shares in its roughly $8 billion gold exchange-traded product due to an administrative oversight, the latest setback for the world’s largest asset-management firm and the exchange-traded fund industry.
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Welcome to Evening MoneyBeat, WSJ’s closing-bell roundup of all the news and developments in the capital markets. To receive this newsletter, click here: http://on.wsj.com/MoneyBeatEveningSignup HOW WE GOT HERE This just in: Recession fears are out. U.S. stocks rose on Friday, with the Dow cresting to a two-month high, after the February jobs report came in stronger […]
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After a jobs report that, despite some weaknesses, beat analyst forecasts, a gauge of how well economic data matches expectations is close to turning positive.
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Just weeks after a market swoon had left investors doubting the strength of the U.S. expansion, shares are climbing.
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The Federal Reserve eased its plan to limit big banks’ credit exposure to one another, taking into account industry concerns as it continues to hone rules aimed at restricting the financial interconnections that exacerbated the 2008 crisis.
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AMC Entertainment shareholders should benefit from the company’s ability to quickly cut costs at Carmike Cinemas.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed above 17000 for the first time in nearly two months on Friday as data showed the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in February.
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Natural gas prices settled higher after falling to a fresh multi-decade low, but concerns about a glut of fuel capped gains.
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The dollar gave back earlier gains Friday, as mixed February jobs data led investors to believe a rate increase from the Federal Reserve remains distant.
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Wall Street’s earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies are falling at the fastest pace since the height of the financial crisis.
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If you look through the markets, the economy, even the presidential debates, there is a common thread, one that we found at the end of this week’s Financial Food Fight.
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Fresh signs of a robust U.S. labor market drove investors to sell U.S. government debt Friday, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to a one-month high.
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The bond-fund industry is showing signs of a shift away from gloom and doom amid a broad-based recovery of riskier assets over the past few weeks.
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Are the markets, especially recently buoyant commodities and emerging markets, correctly predicting a global economic rebound? Friday’s U.S. trade data say these markets are wrong.
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The U.S. economy added 242,000 jobs in February, a “very strong” pace of creation, Blackrock’s Jeffrey Rosenberg said on Friday’s MoneyBeat podcast, and that will alleviate some of the fears about a possible U.S. recession.
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Financial advisers need to speak with clients about the Labor Department’s pending rule, a practice-management expert says.
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Gold prices rose Friday, as investors bet the Federal Reserve was no closer to raising interest rates after U.S. employment data showed wages fell in February.
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South Dakota emerged from the shadow of its northern neighbor to lead the nation in economic growth during the third quarter of 2015. North Dakota’s economy? Dead last.
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The U.S. oil-rig count fell by eight to 392 in the latest week, according to Baker Hughes Inc., reaching levels last seen in late 2009.
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This is the biggest streak of job creation in recorded history. As long as you don’t think about it too hard.
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The U.S. market has had it good in recent weeks: Data has been largely positive, while the U.S. dollar has remained weaker against its major peers. That may not last.
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Lower interest rates might not only put considerable pressure on bank profitability, but also squeezes the hard hit banks on Europe’s southern fringe most severely.
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Italian banking shares are suffering heavy losses after the European Central Bank demanded that troubled lender Banca Carige SpA present new funding and strategic plans to shore up its finances and meet supervisory requirements.
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The February jobs report was good enough to prove wrong recent fears the U.S. is in danger of slipping into recession, but the Federal Reserve still needs to tread carefully on raising rates.
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Staples Inc. swung to a fourth-quarter profit, though its results came in below Wall Street views, as sales declined while the company continues to seeks regulatory approval for its deal to buy rival Office Depot Inc.
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A few times a year, some of the top quants on Wall Street get together to compete over math puzzles. Here are five questions from their latest competition.
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Norway’s government in January tapped into its sovereign-wealth fund to cover its expenses, for the first time since the fund was established in 1996, in another sign that falling oil revenues are taking a toll on crude producers.
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The guts of the monthly employment report provide a more textured view of the job market. Here’s the latest overview, in charts.
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The U.S. labor market rebounded in February with employers adding 242,000 jobs. But wages declined for the first time in more than a year. Here’s how economists and analysts reacted to the report. “This report shows more people going to work, but no burgeoning inflation. While the headline numbers in the report are important, many Americans […]
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AMC Entertainment agreed to buy Carmike Cinemas in a cash deal that would make a Chinese-owned company the largest movie-theater operator in the U.S.
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Stocks have now dipped slightly into negative territory, with the S&P 500 down 2 points.
With that, we’ll call it a morning. Thanks for joining us.
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Seems to me, just offhand and trying to glean something from everything I’m reading this morning, that the market’s baseline Fed scenario is no hike for March, but they will be reading the March statement like hawks (no pun intended) for signs of when the next hike is coming, because they believe now that one is indeed coming. That wasn’t the case too long ago.
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Bloomberg News
The report likely will accentuate a growing split among Fed officials.
On one side are regional Fed bank presidents such as San Francisco’s John Williams, Richmond’s Jeffrey Lacker and Kansas City’s Esther George who continue to press for rate increases this year.
In the other camp are policy makers who prefer to take a more cautious approach and wait until the effects of the global financial turmoil and the fall in oil prices have played themselves out. Count the Dallas Fed’s Robert Steven Kaplan, Boston’s Eric Rosengren and Philadelphia’s Patrick Harker among them.
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The S&P 500 is up 3 points to 1996 just after the open. The Dow rises 21. The Nasdaq composite and the Russell up fractionally as well.
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Could we be getting ready to see the dollar broadly rise again? Sure, this jobs report isn’t doing much for the dollar right now–the WSJ Dollar Index is actually down on the day–but let’s look at what else is on the calendar.
The European Central Bank is due to meet next Thursday. After the last meeting, traders sent the euro sharply higher against the dollar, the opposite reaction than what most think the ECB was going for.
“The ECB did not like the impression that it under-delivered in December,” said Steve Barrow, head of G10 Strategy in London at Standard Bank, in a note. “So, this time around we would expect the ECB to try to over-deliver.”
That could fuel another round of dollar strengthening, he says.
Alan Ruskin, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, looked at the so-called misery index, which measures the unemployment rate and inflation. When misery falls, as it has been doing, the dollar strengthens, he finds. His conclusion: we’re a long way from a top in the dollar.
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U.S. markets are set to open in about five minutes, and the major averages are poised for fractional increases. S&P futures waffled a bit after the report, first rising then falling. They’ve pared some of their losses though, down about five points from where they were just before the report hit the tape.
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Together with other positive U.S. economic data, the February jobs report looks good to stock investors, says David Lefkowitz, senior equity strategist at UBS Wealth Management Research.
“There has been a lot of concern about the strength of the US expansion, and in the last few weeks we’ve seen better economic data, and the jobs report confirms that data is getting a little bit stronger,” he says, adding that recession fears will continue to diminish.
Still, the overhang of the oil and gas sector and its severe cost-cutting efforts remains, as do worries about contracting first-quarter earnings, Mr. Lefkowitz says. “We have this headwind coming from the reduced amount of investment spending in the U.S. economy, and I think that’s still going to be a depressant in the next several months.”
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With payrolls up, the unemployment rate remaining below 5%, wages declining and rate expectations little changed, February’s report is one of “Goldilocks variety: Not too hot, not too cold,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com.
The report further quells fears of a possible U.S. recession. But it shows that inflation still has a ways to go before reaching the Fed’s target. In that sense, it’s a Goldilocks number.
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A NEW RECORD: The economy has now recorded positive jobs growth for a record 65 months in a row. (Next best expansion: 48 months.)
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) March 4, 2016
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Now we get to my favorite part of the BLS report, matching up who was hiring with who was paying. For this exercise, I have the report open on three separate tabs: one is the press release, another is table B-1, which breaks down the jobs by sector, and a third is table B-8, which breaks down the sectors by salary. I’m looking at the yearly rise, since that seems like a better gauge of real wage growth. Keep in mind, too, these numbers are not adjusted for inflation.
Health care and social assistance added 57,000 jobs in February. Wages for education and health services rose 2.1%, to $22.40 from $21.94.
Retail trade added 55,000 jobs in February. Wages in that sector rose 2%, to $14.95 from $14.65.
Food services and drinking places added 40,000 jobs in February. Leisure and hospitality wages rose 2.5%, to $12.64 from $12.33.
Those were the top three sectors for jobs growth in February. They are also three of the lowest paying sectors. Retail and hospitality are the two lowest paying, in fact.
Fourth on the list was education, which created 28,000 jobs in February. Its wages are captured in that education and health services number I referenced above.
Construction came in fifth, adding 19,000 jobs, and was the last sector that added enough jobs for the BLS to break it out in the release. Wages in that sector rose 2.9%, to $25.41 from $24.69.
There’s an interesting footnote to table B-8, too. It notes that the data cover production employees in mining and logging and manufacturing, construction, and nonsupervisory staffer in services industries. “These groups account for approximately four-fifths of the total employment on private nonfarm payrolls.”
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It’s a good sign for the labor market as the participation rate has ticked up a full half-point from near-40-year lows to 62.9% in February. Folks may be getting off the sidelines in serious numbers and back into the workforce as the market continues to tighten. That shift is keeping the unemployment rate from falling even further.
A big chunk of the post-crisis decline in joblessness was because of people getting out of the workforce, sending that number to a series of record highs. But those counted as out of the workforce has fallen a seasonally adjusted 758,000 the past four months while the employed is up a big 1.8 million. The unemployment rate, though has only fallen a tenth since October as the number of jobless is down just 84,000 to 7.8 million.
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The most negative part of this month’s jobs report seems to be average hourly earnings for private-sector workers, which fell 0.1% from the previous month. That was below expectations for a 0.2% rise.
One thing to remember is that we got a big rise last month. Average hourly earnings surged 0.5% in January. That means we may have been due for a pullback, which is what we got.
The reading is “simply an offset to the strong gain in Jan and suggests that wage gains remain tame if positive,” said David Ader, head of rates strategy at CRT Capital Group, in a note after the release.
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European markets rose after the jobs number crossed the wire, with the STOXX Europe 600 now up 1.2% to 343.60, stronger than the gains of 0.6% seen before the release. The FTSE gains 1.1% to 6200. The German DAX gains 1.3% to 9875.1.
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The dollar rises after the jobs number comes in well above the 200,000 expected in the WSJ poll. However, evidence of pressure on wages may call into question whether the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates, which could limit dollar gains.
EUR/USD turns 0.3% lower to $1.0914, down from $1.0971 before the release; USD/JPY is at 114.07, up from 113.81 previously; and GBP/USD is down 0.3% at $1.4117, down from $1.4141 beforehand.
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The wage measure featured in Friday’s jobs report may undershoot raises for the bulk of U.S. workers.
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Job growth occurred in health care and social assistance, retail trade, food services
and drinking places, and private educational services. Mining employment
continued to decline.Health care and social assistance added 57,000 jobs in February.
Retail trade continued to add jobs in February, with 55,000 added.
Food services and drinking places added 40,000 jobs in February. Over the year, employment in the industry has grown by 359,000.
Employment in private educational services rose by 28,000 in February, after edging down by 20,000 in the prior month.
Construction employment continued to trend up in February with a gain of 19,000. Of that, 14,000 was in residential specialty trade contractors. Employment in construction is up by 253,000 over the past 12 months, with residential specialty trade contractors accounting for about half of the increase.
Employment in mining fell by 19,000. Since a recent peak in September 2014, mining has shed 171,000 jobs, with more than three-fourths of the loss in support activities for mining.
Employment in other major industries, including manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, professional and business services, and government, showed little change over the month.
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January was revised up to 172,000 from 151,000. December was revised to 271,000.
The dollar dropped against the euro and the yen, as renewed fears about China’s economic growth reinforced doubts about a rate increase from the Federal Reserve later this year.